Bitcoin may struggle in September, with October potentially holding key insights.
Bitcoin investors might experience a turbulent journey ahead. Historical trends indicate September as a challenging month, and two ETF analysts recommend focusing on mid-October for potential significant developments.
Over the past 13 years, Bitcoin has ended September with negative monthly returns on nine occasions. Notably, popular crypto analyst Will Clemente emphasized September’s consistent negative returns over the past six years.
Bitcoin's returns broken down by months
September has had the least number of positive-returning months at just two and is on a 6-year negative-returning streak. pic.twitter.com/4VqZkMubm3
— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) August 31, 2023
Several additional factors indicate a challenging path in September. Material Indicators, a monitoring resource, cautions that a “full retrace” of gains following Grayscale’s victory over the SEC is a probable scenario for the largest cryptocurrency in the future.
TLDR: Trend Precognition signals ⬇️ on the D chart Prepare to round trip the range
BTC >$27,760 invalidates the signal
BTC <$24,750 paves the road to #BearadiseTo expand on what @TradingParrot shared earlier, on the #Bitcoin D candle Close/Open, Trend Precognition presented a… pic.twitter.com/sX3Bqj3v57
— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) August 31, 2023
In the future, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart recommends that investors focus on mid-October. This date marks the second decision deadline for the SEC regarding seven pending spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock, Bitwise, Valkyrie, WisdomTree, VanEck, iShares, and Invesco.
NEXT DATES TO WATCH:
Middle of October are the next major days to watch. Namely October 16th. (& @GlobalXETFs' Oct 7)
Also, reminder that we fully expected delays on this round of spot #Bitcoin ETF filings. Would have been a shock if they were approved this week. pic.twitter.com/i14fg8FWun
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 31, 2023
On August 30, James Seyffart and fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas estimated a 75% likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the end of this year. The mid-October dates represent the final deadline for the SEC in 2023.
Seyffart also mentioned that delays in the recent round of spot Bitcoin ETF filings were widely anticipated, and he would have been surprised if they had been approved in the initial set of deadlines last week.
Following a brief surge in response to the Grayscale news, the price of Bitcoin has subsequently declined by 4.5% in the past 24 hours and currently sits at $26,066, as per CoinGecko data.
